Adroit Associates conducted an independent final evaluation of the Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (AHA) project implemented by PACIDA in partnership with Caritas Germany and funded by GFFO. The evaluation assessed the project’s relevance, effectiveness, and efficiency across climate-affected regions of Kenya and Ethiopia, with a strong focus on anticipatory humanitarian action approaches.
The study generated robust, evidence-based insights on how early warning–triggered interventions, integrated with livelihood recovery, WASH, and protection programming, contributed to improved well-being, reduced vulnerability, and strengthened resilience among disaster-affected communities.
Communities in Northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia face recurring climate shocks, including droughts, water scarcity, livestock losses, and conflict over natural resources. These challenges are compounded by fragile governance systems, limited infrastructure, and restricted access to essential services.
The PACIDA AHA project was designed to address these vulnerabilities through an anticipatory action model that enables early intervention before crises fully materialize. The project combined food security support, WASH services, livelihood recovery, and protection programming with a forward-looking preparedness approach.
Key interventions included multipurpose cash transfers, food assistance, livestock support (fodder, vaccination), agricultural inputs, water access improvements, hygiene promotion, and community-based resilience training. Protection components addressed gender-based violence (GBV), harmful practices such as FGM, and local conflict mitigation through dialogue platforms.
The evaluation examined whether these integrated interventions reduced immediate humanitarian needs while strengthening long-term resilience and preparedness capacities.
Project Objectives
The evaluation aimed to assess the project’s performance against its intended outcomes, particularly in improving food and water access, strengthening resilience to climate shocks, and enhancing protection and peacebuilding mechanisms.
It focused on understanding the effectiveness of anticipatory action in reducing vulnerability, the efficiency of early-response mechanisms, and the extent to which the project contributed to sustainable livelihood recovery and community-level preparedness.
Additionally, the evaluation explored how well the project supported inclusive participation, particularly among women and vulnerable groups, and how effectively it addressed conflict dynamics and protection risks.
Methodological Approach
Adroit Associates applied a mixed-methods evaluation design integrating quantitative rigor with qualitative depth.
A structured household survey was conducted with 1,134 respondents across project locations in Kenya and Ethiopia using statistically sound sampling techniques. Data collection utilized digital tools with built-in validation checks to ensure accuracy and consistency.
The qualitative component included Key Informant Interviews, Focus Group Discussions, transect walks, and direct observations. Stakeholders engaged included PACIDA and Caritas Germany staff, local government authorities such as Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and Ethiopia’s regional agriculture offices, as well as community leaders, women’s groups, and beneficiaries.
The evaluation framework was guided by OECD-DAC criteria — Relevance, Effectiveness, Efficiency — while integrating cross-cutting considerations such as Gender Equality and Social Inclusion (GESI), protection, and conflict sensitivity.
Rigorous quality assurance measures included enumerator training, field supervision, real-time monitoring, and adherence to ethical research standards including informed consent, confidentiality, and data protection.
Impact and Strategic Significance
The evaluation demonstrated that the PACIDA AHA project contributed to improved food security, increased access to water, and strengthened household resilience in climate-affected regions. Anticipatory interventions enabled earlier responses to shocks, reducing the severity of impacts on vulnerable populations.
Livelihood recovery support enhanced adaptive capacity, while WASH interventions improved health and hygiene conditions. Protection and peacebuilding activities contributed to reduced conflict risks and increased community awareness of GBV and harmful practices.
The findings highlight the effectiveness of anticipatory humanitarian action as a scalable and forward-looking model in fragile and climate-affected contexts. The evaluation provides actionable insights for donors, implementers, and policymakers on integrating early warning systems, cash-based responses, and resilience-building strategies into humanitarian programming.
This assignment reinforces Adroit Associates’ expertise in delivering high-quality, context-sensitive evaluations that generate practical evidence for improving humanitarian effectiveness and long-term resilience outcomes.